I’m planning a small-batch spring accessory with an 8-week lifecycle and a 35-day lead time, and I’m torn between going 70% upfront vs holding more OTB to chase. To hit 80% sell-through by week 7 without heavy markdowns, what week-2 signals do you trust to pull back or double down?
Building on @victoria_you32, I use a week‑2 WOS gate: if run‑rate says “WOS <4 by day 10” and >10% of views hit OOS sizes/waitlist, I’ll chase; if WOS >6 or size curve is flat despite traffic, I hold OTB. With a 35‑day lead you’re really fueling the tail, so bias any PO to size/color rebalance — seeing early waitlists or size‑level stockouts yet?
And i bias off early attach to your evergreen styles: if 12–15% of those orders include the accessory and unpaid PDP sessions are up about 25% vs baseline, I’ll greenlight a small chase weighted to the winning color; if scroll depth is high but ATC stalls, I pause and fix content before committing. @noah74 does that attach threshold line up with what you’re seeing?
I add a ‘brand-pull > push’ gate: when organic search for the item name jumps about 2x and PDP add-to-cart clears about 7% at mostly full price, I chase; if the mix skews paid and abandonment pops above norm, I pull back. If they’re typing it in by name, it’s probably a green light — if ads are doing all the talking, maybe not; do you track organic vs paid mix that early?
I lean on week‑2 days‑of‑cover at current run rate: under about 2.5 weeks with >85% full‑price mix and stable CPCs, I release 25–30% chase; over 4 weeks, I freeze and trim. With your “35‑day lead time,” I only chase if the PO can land by week 6; otherwise I shift spend to maximize clean sell‑through instead of adding units. Would you air a small tranche if the DOC signal hits by day 10?
Building on @lindsey_taylor90, I watch week‑2 basket attach and door breadth: if the accessory averages ≥[redacted] per order on outfits featuring your spring hero (riding shotgun in carts) and ≥50% of doors have logged a sale by day 10, I release 20–25% chase; if attach <0.15 or breadth <40%, I hold and rebalance. Small caveat: chase often ships expensively, so sanity-check contribution after freight — do you track attach by door yet?
Quick example: I use PDP saves/shares per 100 visits and checkout latency as my early go/no-go. If saves >1.2/100 and median time-to-purchase stays under about 18 hours with cancels + returns <1.5%, I release 25–35% chase; if latency stretches past about 36 hours or saves stall, I cap exposure. @renee_jones101, are you seeing UGC pickup in the first few selling days?